in front of the big screen and watch old c span debates. >> extremely high probability that there will be a no-hitter tonight. >> i learned that my father doesn't aapprove of everything i do but he does show. >> i learned that all of that work doing through the years dangerous. >> i thought that was natural. >> you can do it. we'll see you back here tomorrow. stick around for chuck todd in denver for the debate. 720 minutes. that's all that is left until the candidates square off tonight in denver. tens of millions of people watching across the country. will there be a mitt romney moment tonight to push the

president out of the driver's seat? there is shifting in our new numbers. we will break down our new national poll to see where the race is tightening slightly in romney's favor. the most important number may be romney's 47%. the deep dive down memory lane for the good, bad and ugly of the modern presidential debate, the winners, losers, zingers and the awkward that help decide. good morning from the university of denver. a beautiful campus here, debate day, wednesday, october 3. this is "the daily rundown." i'm chuck todd. let's get to my first read. everything has been said about the importance of tonight's debate. now it is up to the candidates themselves who will meet on the university of denver on the same stage. romney has inched up slightly in our "wall street journal" poll. the bad news when you dig deeper

you see the structural problems facing romney as he tries to catch up and how damaging the 47% remark was and is to the campaign. is there such a thing as a commanding lead? if so he has it. president obama's job approval rating is at 49%. 48% disapprove of his performance. 40% believe the country is headed in the right direction. the highest number we recorded in 3 1/2 years. 53% still believe the country is on the wrong track. the president leads romney by three. what is helping romney tighten the race? a fact true all year continues to be true. republican voters are more interested in this election than

democrats. the president has a larger lead. he is up seven. the problem for him is a lack of enthusiasm of hispanics and young voters. romney has to do things to make people substantially change the way people feel about him. his approval rating is still under water. the lowest for any presidential nominee at this point in time other than george h.w. bush in 1992. romney is out with his second straight to camera ad in the direct effort to undo damage of the remarks. >> more americans live in poverty than when president obama took office. we should measure our compassion by how many fellow americans are able to get good paying jobs and not how many are on welfare. >> look at these numbers.

by a whopping 51 to 28 voters say what they have heard about romney has made them feel more unfavorably there is still a few yellow flags for the president. more people disapprove of how he has handled the situation in libya and egypt than approve. if you want to understand why the president is leading look at this number, economic optimism. 57% now believe the economy is recovering. that number is up six points in just the past few weekz. ultimately this race will be won in nine battleground states. florida, virginia, and ohio romney is tight in the races with the states of fluidity, florida and virginia. in florida obama and romney are neck and neck. virginia romney has narrowed the

lead from 5 to 2. another statistical tie. in ohio the president has improved his standing. he leads romney there by eight points. and for those wondering about the party idea the sample is less democratic in ohio this time than the last poll. digging deeper into our numbers we divided thet battleground states by three measures. president's job rating. romney's favorability rating that number is still under water he has problems and the question of which candidate is better equipped to manage the economy. remember the unemployment rate is 5.9% in virginia. romney's favorable in florida but under in virginia and ohio. when it comes to who is better able to manage the economy a question on which romney has

staked his candidacy romney has a margin of error lead in florida and virginia. the president leads on that question in ohio. with iowa, new hampshire and ohio headed to the obama column that puts the president at 265 and that means romney has to run the table on the remaining states to get to 270. if the debate doesn't move romney's numbers in ohio he may face the same decision al gore faced in 2000 whether to take the pr hit. all of this explains why tonight's debate is so crucial. >> it is spectacular and i have never seen it before. >> a 726 foot monument to government infrastructure. in denver romney's break time was lunch to chipotle.

the candidates off the trail on tuesday and the two men picked up the slack. >> how they can justify, how they can justify raising taxes when the middle class has been buried the last four years. >> well, reporters were buried by romney's press releases on that comment. paul ryan reacted to it. >> vice president biden just today said that the middle class over the last four years has been, quote, buried. we agree. that means we need to stop digging by electing mitt romney the next president of the united states. >> biden clarified his remarks saying, quote, the middle class was buried by policies that

romney and ryan supported. the romney campaign tries to make the stick calling a conference call and then holding a press conference in denver this morning. no doubt we'll hear more about the comments tonight from romney as he tries to draw attention away from his own 47% remark. there is a quick look at tonight's format. there are no opening statements. the president will answer the opening questions. the debate will be divided into six 15-minute segments. the president and romney will each get two minutes to answer an initial question in each topic area but then timing will be left to the moderator's discretion. since obama won a coin toss he won the choice and romney got the choice of if he wants the

first or second closing statement. he will be the last person you hear from at tonight's debate. it's going to be a good one. it is fitting that the debate is in colorado. both candidates have spent a lot of time in this state. recent poling shows president with a slight edge over romney but it is fluid. the last time we were here we had the president up five points. and a one-point lead according to the "new york times" poll. joining me now colorado's democratic governor john hickenlooper. thanks for wonderful weather here. the weather is unbelievable. when people ask you why colorado is a swing state what do you say? >> it is a combination of people having moved here from west coast and east coast. we have ended up with one-third

democrats, one-third republicans and one-third independents. we passed our budget last year. people look into who the person is. >> you say it is not partisan and yet some of the most base parts of the party, boulder is home to one of the most liberal groups in the country. so you have this polarized atmosphere sometimes, too, among the grass roots of both parties. fair to say? >> i think we have like much of the country a lot of the extremes. we have that real granola liberal environmentally -- >> boulder democrat when somebody is running against somebody. >> and the same thing with colorado springs. they are the extremes. there is the full spectrum between and there is a big chunk of independent voters and people that really are focused on issues and leadership.

>> president's number one vulnerability, is it the deficit conversation? >> i think that there isn't really -- the president has done a very good job in colorado of pointing out the things he has done. agricultural exports are up largely because of new markets opening. overall exports are up. 38% by the end of last year. our economy has seen a lot of benefit. issues around the stimulus sometimes people bring that up. colorado voters are more in tune with that. there is although i think there is also some of the background issues that have risen in. women's issues -- >> i want to bring that up. is that romney's number one issue? i have seen a lot of advertising specifically targeted women here in colorado. >> when michael bennett was running for the u.s. senate those women issues came up again

and again and really did turn a great number of voters in the direction of michael bennett. >> i know you are having a fight between the state and localities having to do with fracking and you want to expand energy. it sounds like romney would be on your side on some of these things and the stereotype would be the president wouldn't be on your side with some of these things. >> the president has been. the president asked to look into fracking and found it was safe if done properly. you have to make sure like with any industrial process you don't want people making mistakes. if you look at what inexpensive natural gas has done our co 2 emissions are down where they were during eisenhower's presidency. we are half the way towards achieving protocol even though we didn't vote to accept it. many ways it is a game changer. it is cheaper and creates jobs

and cleaner for the air. >> and then colorado will have a boom. >> we are one of the top states for natural gas. president obama says all of the above. we need solar and wind and inexpensive natural gas. >> epa is on your side? >> absolutely. >> you will be in the audience tonight? >> absolutely. wouldn't miss it for the world. >> the first of three colorado governors that we have on this show. i challenge any other show to have claimed that today. you will hear from a couple more joining us in moments coming up. plus obama versus romney on the issues voters care most about like taxes, foreign policy and health care. who comes out on top? we will dig deeper next. first i have to show you their schedules today. i think everybody knows where they will be at 9:00 p.m. eastern and 7:00 p.m. mountain. it is the easiest place to watch

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do you like polls? because we have a lot of them. lots of new polls on the state level, national level. here is where the presidential contest stands. the president leads by three points among likely voters. tighter race than the seven point margin among registered

voters. gentleman, good morning. you are missing a wonderful day out here. bill, let me start with you about likelihood big discrepancy. i pointed out this issue of enthusiasm. i want to get people to understand why is there such a difference between the registered and likely margins? >> what happens is likely voters are less likely to be hispanic and the percentage of people 18-29 year olds drop. and so as a consquence with the poll being older and less hispanic it moves suddenly to the direction of mitt romney. that happens consistently because most are picking up the same thing in terms of voter groups less likely to vote. >> and just to let people know

to be likely you have to say yes to two of these following three questions that you voted in 2008 and 2010 and you are a nine or a ten on a scale of one to ten in interest in the eelection. on hispanics the president hits 70% in our poll yet hispanic interest in the election is down double digits from four years ago. it is a net zero for the president. >> i think we have five weeks left. tonight is sort of for a lot of average americans the kickoff to the general election, not the convention. i would say what this poll shows is all the elements are there for a close race but i think the president has net advantage. over the next 35 days the obama campaign, the democrats we need to motivate our voters and get them out to vote and we can win.

>> explain why 49-46 more solid lead than 47-44? >> president is a little closer to 50 than 47. lower undecided. in our poll and also the msnbc poll it is not the overall country because california is going to go to democrats and utah to republicans but where swing states are president has net advantage there. one of the interesting thing was with independent voters the president is doing better now than four years ago. >> when you look at our poll and if you ignored the head to head and didn't look at it and looked at everything else you would say the 47% remark by mitt romney left a mark, if you will. asked directly about it more positive 23% more negative 45%.

asked generally if it made you more favorable the president is one to one. two to one on mitt romney. and in the ballot it did not leave a mark. is it a problem for mitt romney or not? >> i don't think that is how a campaign runner spends talking about for two weeks. african american and latino voters are very important. i want every american to vote. they are not voting for mitt romney. when you look at numbers like are you more favorable about this candidate the president and romney have parallel numbers among white voters. these huge margins are because overwhelmingly 78 to 4 african americans are saying less likely. if you are losing 100% of the vote it doesn't effect the ballot. so the difference in this poll

is you have to look at the valid coalition compared to the numbers you are using from this survey. that explains how you can have the negative numbers from romney and have him going up in the poll compared to two weeks ago mpt. >> i want to go to candidate qualities thmpt president has leads on looking after the middle class, dealing with immigration and medicare. single digit on health care, being a good commander in chief, foreign policy and taxes. of all of those qualities, the two that would concern you the most if you were mitt romney? >> the one you didn't mention is mitt romney is ahead on changing washington, d.c. and the economy. you have to look at what is putting mitt romney in the ballpark. in washington, d.c. we spent two weeks talking about the romney campaign troubles. our poll was one of five

released monday or tuesday where likely voters showed romney stronger than two weeks ago. so at some point the narrative has to change of wow, look what happened. romney didn't get weaker. he has gotten stronger. it isn't just our poll it is one of five national surveys in two days that says it is a margin of error campaign. >> i know. i was going to do the romney qualities. i wanted to do the obama qualities with you. i was going to ask you the taxes issue. having the democrat lead on taxes can't be good for a republican. >> we had the second cycle in a row where obama's run and tried to neutralize a tax advantage. again, part of it and thas is what is really new to our poling. more afffluent people think obama is the biggest threat to

them. lower income people think mitt romney is. we are seeing cultural differences by income that are interesting. >> the romney quality advantages what i want to do with you federal budget deficit up nine. dealing with china as an economic rival up eight. on the economy up three. changing business as usual in washington is dead even. if you are the obama campaign what concerns you the most here? the deficit number? >> probably the deficit. i think if you are the president's campaign you're less worried about romney's numbers right now. on the one hand the 40% right direction is the highest it has been in 3 1/2 years and any incumbent heading in that is momentum. 53% say the country is headed in the wrong track. i think this for the president is not about mitt romney.

those advantages, chuck, on china, foreign policy and the deficit aren't as strong as for usual republicans. and the final point i would make is i think the important thing for this election is that braump has a 52 positive, 42 negative image. mitt romney has a negative image. only two have had a net negative image at this point and one of them loss, george h.w. bush and romney needs to improve that dynamic. >> democratic pollster. thank you very much to both of you. we have to get back in the field. let's keep poling. just two days away from friday's jobs report. we will get a quick preview on wall street on the market run down. and then we are taking a trip down memory lane. the good, bad and awkward from past debates.

why the moments still matter today and are lessons to both tonight. first who was the first presidential candidate to win colorado in a general election? we will give you the answer. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, we believe the more you know, the better you trade.

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he knows the job. he is a very good debater. i tell him to have fun and relax and be himself because the truth is if he is the barack obama the country has come to know and trust he is going to do a great job. >> i tell him you had five boys. you learned to argue really well and make your point years ago. just go with that.

>> that is first lady michelle obama and ann romney offering their advice to their husbands. president obama heads to colorado today. mitt romney has been here since monday night. with me now is former colorado governor billowens. the second of three colorado governors i have on my show today. let me start with the same question i asked governor hickenlooper. why is colorado a swing state? what do you tell friends and families and colleagues when they ask what makes colorado such a right down the middle state? >> it is one of the best educated states in the country in terms of college graduates it is the best educated state in the country. we really are a microcosm of the country. a lot of coloradoens came from other states. and so it's a nice place to battle out the country's

elections. and as you probably pointed out earlier we have gone all sorts of ways in presidential elections. we have elected democratic governors. i think the coloradoens take a look at the candidate and vote for the person they think will do the best job for colorado and the country. >> it seems to me in watching what i feel like the conversation colorado voters are having with each other is that the president thinks women voters and social issues are the key to the reelection and the romney campaign thinks talking about the deficit is a winner here. what say you? are both on the right track to get to 50? >> i think it depends on which base the two parties are trying to get out. obviously the democratic party with its so-called war on women is trying to make sure it gets the turnout from that element.

and my party is looking i think more broadly at the fact that the economy effects men and women. the deficit effects men and women young and old. i would suggest that my party and mitt romney are actually waging a campaign that is trying to address real issues as opposed to issues that really haven't proven to be very operative in the past, social issues and abortion, for example. those are wedge issues that drive your base up if you are a democratic candidate. >> wasn't the issue of abortion the reason michael bennett got reelected to a full term? >> there were a number of reasons. republican presidents and republican congresss and republican governors and republican legislatures haven't taken away the right to abortion

anywhere in the country. it is pretty much a straw argument that it is a constitutionalal right addressed around the edges. what the romney campaign believes and what mitt romney believes is that the future of the country depends on the economy, depends on getting this deficit under control and really starting to get america growing again. more americans are unemployed today than when barack obama took office. whose fault is that? you raised good points but i am comfortable with governor romney's position. >> if you are giving advice your advice would be what? >> i won hispanics in colorado in my second race. i think governor romney's focus on the economy are hispanic americans are impacted perhaps even more than the rest by this softer economy. and so i would do what governor romney has been doing and that

is continue to address the base issues. this is an election that has to look at how well we have done over the last four years. president obama was elected with this hope and this vision for change. and we have seen change actually for the worst. i think it is very fair to look at his record and say here is what he said four years ago and here is what he hasn't accomplished. so obviously a lot of tonight is going to be about president obama's record, just since four years ago president obama was looking back at the record of those he wanted to replace. >>ormer republican governor out here. thanks for coming on this. the monthly private payrolls report is out today. markets are just opening. let's get to the market run down. becky quick is here on the other side of the camera. >> i like this.

>> private payroll, adp. mid 100s. does it tell us anything? >> 162 is better than the street has been expecting. adp does payrolls for a lot of private sector companies. they have a pretty good idea of what is happening because they do so many different companies. 162 a little better than expected. sometimes it is dead on for what we can expect on friday from the jobs report which takes a look at government jobs. sometimes it's way off. that is what happened last month when they had 201,000 for adps numbers and then the jobs numbers was only 96. today the markets are indicating a little higher. stocks opening up about 25 points for the dow. the big number is friday. we don't know what we can read into for this. this could have huge impplications for jobs and what is happening in the election.

>> thank you as always. coming up next we are taking a deep dive into the iconic debate moments in history. the gasps and laughs and unbelievable zingers. good news for democrats running on the u.s. senate. 33 people were killed in a series of suicide bombings in

the syrian city of aleppo today. three explosions rocked the main square in the district. "new york times" reports the united states is getting ready to go after with the militants who carried out the deadly attack. the special operations command is preparing for orders. we have new numbers. in florida bill nelson double digit lead over republican congressman. in ohio democratic senator leads. and then the race for virginia's open senate seat tim kaine leads allen. at a detroit bookies backyard where jimmy hoffa is not buried. soil samples show no signs of human remains.

what happened on this stage in denver tonight can go a long way towards winning and losing this election. today we look back at the good, the bad and the awkward. we start with this head scratcher from gerald ford, one that helped seal his fate. >> there is no soviet domination of eastern europe and there never will be under a ford administration. >> there already had been at the time. although ford tried to back track later the damage had been done. in 1988 it was a detached answer that got massachusetts governor in trouble and said this media narrative. >> governor, if kitty were raped and murdered would you favor a

death penalty for the killer? >> i don't and i think you know that i have proposed the death penalty during all of my life. >> four years later george h.w. bush struggled to explain how the bad economy was hurting him personally. >> i think in terms of the recession of course you feel it when you are president of the united states. that's why i'm trying to do something about it by stimulating the export, investing more. >> but at at the same debate bush was seen checking his watch looking bored. bush said he was waiting for the night to be over. john mccain took heat as he tried to portray barack obama as a washington insider. >> an energy bill loaded down with goodies. it was sponsored by bush and cheney. you know who voted for it, that one.

you know who voted against it, me. >> of course, sometimes it is not what you say but what you do that gets you in trouble. go back to 1960. vice president richard nixon had recently gotten over a bout with an infection that left him looking shaky. kennedy looked healthy and strong. when kennedy won nearly half said the debate played a role in the decision. al gore was criticized for sighing and rolling his eyes while debating george bush in 2000. and then capped it off with this moment. >> it is not what your philosophy and position on issues but can you get things done. and i believe i can. >> that's funny. i'm sorry. you hear this next one repeated many times. it came from ronald reagan

during his debate with jimmy carter. reagan posed a simple question. >> are you better off than you were four years ago? >> four years later president reagan was 73 facing concerns about his age, an issue compounded by his shaky first debate and then turned the weakness into a strength with this line. >> i want you to know that also i will not make age an issue of this campaign. i am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent's youth and inexperience. >> bill clinton was on the other side of that equation while debating another 73 year old. this one was former senator bob dole. clinton handled the issue this way. >> i don't think senator bill is too old to be president.

it's the age of his ideas that i question. >> so we'll have to wait and see if there is a memorable moment tonight that can shape the final month of the race. sometimes it is a one liner. sometimes it is a facial expression. white house soup of the day. that is good soup. i wish i were eating it today. coconut shrimp. you are watching "the daily rundown" on msnbc. [ female announcer ] ready for a taste of what's hot? check out the latest collection of snacks from lean cuisine. creamy spinach artichoke dip, crispy garlic chicken spring rolls. they're this season's must-have accessory. lean cuisine. be culinary chic.

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he's closed the gap from just one point to a five-point deficit in september. let's go to those. here was florida. 47-46. go to virginia where he closed it to two points there. down from 49-44. but ohio is a different story. this is where the president saw his lead expand by a point. that's at 51%. in a week, if this hasn't moved, romney's going to have to make that tough decision does he pull out of ohio because look at how the road works. you give the president the states where he's leading by more than five points. he's sitting at 265. means he's got to decide where is money better spent? is a dollar better spent here in the state of colorado, but he has to run the table. can't lose any state. even the state of nevada would put president obama over the top. let's bring in my panel. lynn bartles, perry bacon jr.

and my third governor today from the state of colorado, dick lamb, former democratic governor here. now, the colorado director at denver's institute of public policy. i just love this campus. my third and final governor. i'll ask you the same question. what makes colorado such a swing state? >> it's always an evolution, i guess. there's always new people coming to. and there's these new elements, the hispanic community, this has always been a young people's state. young people change. i came up during the time of john f. kennedy. the young people that came up during the time of reagan were much more conservative. you have all these young people and they're always in transition. >> lynn, you're covering the campaign on the ground. of the two campaigns, who do you feel understands the ins and outs of how colorado ticks?

>> i think it's interesting that i have been contacted at my door and on my phone far more often by the obama campaign than by the romney campaign. >> what does that tell you? they have more of a ground operation and you get, you see romney and other evidence of romney how? >> they have a huge ground operation here. every few blocks you go, there's a grand opening for another obama headquarters here. i think romney has a presence in the burbs. in colorado, it's the burbs who decide who wins. >> i know grand junction and colorado springs matter, but is it what happens in the suburbs? >> the population is in the front, so that makes a difference. >> perry, you've come to this state before n. other ways, colorado and virginia, they stuck out like sore thumbs in '04. the only states that bush car carried that had the higher

level of education. >> you could tell they were swing states. i covered john kerry. we went to colorado and virginia early on. somewhere in september, you backed out. there's a sign there, moving in this direction and now, you can see obama, virginia, very close here. these states are changing and that's driving some of the changes in the politics as well. >> you know, two issue themes that i feel like i see out of here and one is near and dear to your heart, governor lamm, which has to do with fiscal issues and retirement reform. about you know, at some point, we're going to have, the people have a due di to die, when you were talking about how expensive it is. fiscal issues here. if obama doesn't win this state, do you think it's the fiscal issues are the reason? >> if he doesn't win the state, you know, i don't think either of them have shown particularly courage on fiscal issues.

i think if obama's able to tie ryan's plan, of course, romney has endorsed it. but it really hasn't stuck yet. i'm in the funny position that i i'm in the funny position that i think ryan

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bringing back our panel, perry, let me start with you. t what do you expect to see tonight? intense exchanges, small ball, what do you think? >> i expect mitt romney to go after the president aggressively. i'm also curious how jim laird does in terms of neither one of the candidates have said what they're going to do in a second term. and neither has put meat on the bone. paul ryan says i don't have time to explain the budget plan. i think laird is going to be the interesting character. >> and lynn, the other side of the voters are sitting in jefferson county. what do you think they're trying to hear tonight that's going to

put them off the fence? >> i think what they're looking for is an answer on the economy. will this make me decide this way or that way? and of course, the famous flubs. >> governor, i want to put a question. you were just saying, last time you were on my show, we had this conversation about democracy and how it's hard to ever take things away in a democracy. how would you ask that question to the candidates? >> what's the public capacity for pain? i'm old fashioned. i think the campaign should discuss big issues. democracy's not going to survive if we don't. we're boar reing 41 cents out of every dollar we spend. that can't end well. more taxes or less spending and we're not even discussing it in a political olympics here. >> can't even raise it. >> as you put it, how do you downsize democracy? it may be impossible. >> shameless plugs.

>> university of denver. this is a great place to work and a great place. >> unbelievable. lynn. >> the denver post, the spot. >> it is good. i enjoy it. one newspaper town. you guys dominate. >> i'm going to plug the debate. everyone should watch. 50 million people get a chance to watch. >> how about 80 million people? let's have 80. 100 million watch. baseball, everything's decided. that's it for this edition of "the daily rundown." we'll see you back here tomorrow from denver. coming up next, chris jansing. bye bye. i'm bill karins with your business travel forecast. big changes in the midwest, but until thatarrives,

it's a warm day for minneapolis to kansas city down through texas. we have that soupy air mass, the humidity's in the air along the eastern sea board. showers will be isolated during the day. cool air arrives in chicago tomorrow. ♪ chances are, you're not made of money,

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